Bitunix Analyst Says Distorted US Nonfarm Data Shifts Focus to Policy Direction for Crypto Markets

The US November nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release on December 16, with consensus expectations for only about 50,000 new jobs and unemployment rising to 4.4%–4.5%. FOREX.com notes that weaker-than-expected figures could bring forward market pricing of the next Federal Reserve rate cut, while Mitsubishi UFJ warns that simultaneous deterioration in jobs and unemployment could keep selling pressure on the dollar into year-end. Authorities have acknowledged that this nonfarm report and the subsequent CPI are "incomplete data" due to the government shutdown, which caused a missing October unemployment rate, gaps in some CPI components and forced adjustments to the November household survey weights, leading to higher short-term variance and lower reliability of any single figure. A Bitunix analyst says that in a phase of low-credibility macro data, the core market game is not about whether nonfarm is strong or weak but whether it is sufficient to alter the Federal Reserve policy narrative, and crypto traders should be alert to liquidity sweeps and elevated volatility around the event and watch whether capital uses macro uncertainty to deleverage and reprice.