U.S. Posts Record Copper Imports as Traders Brace for Possible Trump Tariffs

U.S. copper prices have stayed above London levels for months, pulling material into the country as traders position for a possible tariff on refined copper that President Donald Trump may announce. Shipping data show more than 200,000 metric tons of copper entered the United States in July, the highest monthly total since IHS Markit began tracking in 2014 and the biggest import surge in at least 12 years. Inventories in the U.S. have climbed in tandem. As of last Friday, combined stocks held at the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME) topped 740,000 metric tons. LME figures also show copper stored in private warehouses at U.S. ports at about 110,000 metric tons. The price premium is creating a powerful arbitrage. In July, the average spot spread between COMEX and LME copper exceeded $350 per ton, large enough to divert global supply toward the U.S. Michael Cuoco, Head of Metals at StoneX Financial, said: "Tariff arbitrage currently dominates the market, even surpassing demand growth itself." He added that some traders prefer shipping copper into the U.S. ahead of any policy change to lock in potential gains. The Trump administration has not said whether it will levy tariffs on imported refined copper. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had been tasked with evaluating measures on copper imports, but no final decision has been released after the deadline passed at the end of June. The key question for the market is whether Washington will broaden existing copper tariffs beyond semifinished products and derivatives to include raw copper imports. Official COMEX copper inventories are up more than 40% this year to a record high, and market estimates put total U.S. copper stocks above 1 million metric tons. The stockpiling reflects copper's rising strategic importance as AI data centers, power grid buildouts, electric vehicles, and defense demand expand. U.S. hoarding is tightening supply elsewhere. About 64% of global visible copper inventories are now held in the U.S., while stocks at the London and Shanghai futures exchanges sit below five-year averages, signaling strain in the spot market. Supply risks have also surfaced in Chile, the world's largest copper producer. Extreme weather across South America over the past week—including heavy snowfall, sudden floods, and strong winds—led to 13 deaths and disrupted operations at major producers including Anglo American, Antofagasta, Lundin Mining, and Codelco. Antofagasta's Los Pelambres mine halted mining and processing. Lundin Mining said damage to power infrastructure at its Caserones mine could take two to three weeks to repair before production restarts. Chile produces about one-fifth of the world's copper, and prolonged disruptions could add upward pressure on prices. ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said the weather itself may not fundamentally reshape the market, but it highlights a central issue: supply growth is lagging demand. George Cheveley, natural resources investment manager at Ninety One Asset Management, said weather impacts are typically short term, and the market's main focus remains U.S. tariff policy. Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Strategist at StoneX, said uncertainty around U.S. Section 232 tariffs, combined with softer mine output, has tightened the global market. Copper has climbed for years and hit a record in June at $6.70 per pound, or more than $13,600 per ton. Analysts say a decision to impose tariffs on raw copper could spark another scramble to ship metal to the U.S., while abandoning the plan could send accumulated inventories back into the global market. Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad said the company is refocusing around copper and remains optimistic on long-term demand tied to the energy transition, AI infrastructure, and electrification. StoneX said copper could still print new highs this year as speculative long positions build on major exchanges, with the biggest unknown remaining how the Trump administration ultimately handles copper tariff policy.