BOJ Expected to Raise Rates 25 bps in December, Reach 1.00% by September 2025

Most economists surveyed in a Reuters poll conducted December 2–9 expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its December meeting, with borrowing costs projected to reach at least 1.00% by end-September 2025. According to the poll, 90% of economists (63 of 70) forecast a rise in the short-term rate from 0.50% to 0.75% at next week's meeting, while just over two-thirds (37 of 54) see rates at a minimum of 1.00% by next September. Sources previously said the BOJ is expected to deliver its first rate hike since January at the December meeting, a move Japan's government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to tolerate given inflation risks and yen weakness.