New onchain metrics show that newly formed Bitcoin whale addresses have grown to control nearly 50% of BTC’s realized capitalization, suggesting a major reset in the network’s cost basis. Short-term holder supply has expanded by about 100,000 BTC over 30 days to a record level, while whale wallets have been net buyers as smaller traders reduced risk.

Analysts say Bitcoin's recent weakness could extend into the $65,000–$75,000 area, but they view a potential move to $70,000 as part of a broader macro reset rather than the start of a new bear market. Traders are tracking a possible three-day bullish divergence and past recoveries after oversold RSI readings, while long-term models still outline a potential price path toward $300,000 by 2029. In this view, deeper pullbacks are interpreted as building the base for the next structural uptrend.

Across December, XRP has struggled near the $2.00 area as derivatives activity and spot participation weakened. Binance futures taker buy volume fell from above $5.8 billion in July to roughly $250 million, while the Estimated Leverage Ratio slipped to about 0.18. On Dec. 11, a long‑dormant wallet realized $721.5 million in profit.

In 2025, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio slid from roughly 40 to 20 ounces per BTC as gold outperformed and drew strong buying interest from central banks and ETF investors. Over the same period, spot Bitcoin ETF assets fell from $152 billion to $112 billion and long-term holders realized substantial profits, pressuring BTC on a relative basis. The move reflects diverging demand patterns for gold and Bitcoin rather than a fundamental collapse in BTC's long-term narrative.

On Monday, Bitcoin fell under $86,000 while smaller traders accumulated roughly $474 million in buy volume as larger holders offloaded about $2.78 billion in BTC. Onchain and order flow data indicate whales remain dominant on the sell side and short‑term holders are realizing losses, leaving price exposed to potential retests of $83,800 and possibly $80,600.

Short-term Bitcoin holders reportedly saw profitable conditions on 229 out of 345 trading days in 2025, even as BTC remained below its yearly open and struggled to stay above $100,000. Onchain metrics highlight the STH realized price near $81,000 and shifts in unrealized losses as key drivers of sentiment during multiple profit and loss phases. Analysts are watching whether the current rebound toward $92,500 and fading capitulation can support another expansion phase into 2026.