Bitcoin's 2025 cycle drawdown is roughly -32% from its all-time high, with prices holding near the $90K area and about 88% of coins still in unrealized profit, according to Axel Adler Jr. Around 12% of supply is at a loss, compared with past bear markets that often saw -60–80% drawdowns and roughly 60% of coins underwater. The current pullback therefore appears comparatively mild versus previous bear phases in terms of both depth and the share of supply in loss.

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Structure Index shows a developing divergence, with the fast-tracking component declining to 18% while the slow version remains at 23%. The -5.28 point gap marks the first such signal since early December. The divergence emerges ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 10 rate decision, with markets assigning an 85% probability to a 25 basis point cut.

Bitcoin declined to $92,000 following a -32% drawdown from its all-time high, marking the steepest correction in the current cycle. On-chain data shows the P/L Score has remained in the -3 zone since November 6, a level historically associated with bearish market regimes and extended correction phases.

The Bitcoin Futures Market Power Index has reached 56.9, positioning above the critical 50 threshold and triggering a bull signal, data show. The index sits within the neutral zone of 40-60, with no extreme conditions present. The current level indicates derivatives market support for upward momentum, though the narrow margin above 50 suggests vulnerability to shifts in market pressure.